By Steve Green
Round 12 Recap
Another solid winning week. The first goal scoring plays didnt come off, but I think that was because the Dragons and Broncos didnt get a penalty in shooting range, not because there has been a change of strategy. I will wait and see how the bookies react to the recent downturn in penalty goals for first scoring play, but I still think there is valud to be found on this play.
The Eels were the only losing bet and its clear that the Eels first 8 rounds of form can be thrown out the window.
As for Round 13, I am going to hold off until Thursday night due to the massive uncertainty created by Origin.
The teams were named tonight and already there are some big outs, with Cronk and Smith set to be rested – which totally stuffs our early play on the Storm!
Origin Game 1
Despite all of the criticism that NSW Coach Laurie Daley received for some of his team selections, the bookies still think this team is good enough to beat QLD in Game 1…and I agree with the NSW slight favouritism.
Although Farah was lucky to be ahead of Ennis and Dylan Walker doesn’t deserve his bench spot, these guys are both great players that will get the job done. Dugan’s out is a big loss in terms of attack, but it probably improves their chances of shutting down the dangerous Inglis / Oates combination, with Morriss the best defensive centre in the game…so all in all, the Blues are in with a massive shot of taking a 1-0 lead.
As for QLD, I think they have named a predictable and safe squad…but they have a couple of players that I think are lucky to be there. Dane Gagai has not been brilliant for QLD and although Justin O’Neil is having a solid season, I think both of these guys may have some troubles in defence. I expect a lot of traffic to be sent their way. Furthermore, forwards like Nate Myles and Aidan Guerra are not playing great footy and although QLDers are notorious for lifting for Origin, there is only so much improvement you can expect from players when they don a Maroons jersey.
I have the NSW team slightly better on paper and with Origin having a big home ground advantage, I was very close to backing NSW here. But I have decided against based on the fact that QLD have a big edge in terms of experience and big game players, so no bet on the outcome of the match.
However, I think the Man of the Match market offers value in terms of the price being offered on Adam Reynolds.
Bookmakers like Ladbrokes and Bookmaker.com.au have the talented halfback paying 21.00 and I think that with his kicking game, his performance could be the difference in this match. He has played behind a struggling Bunnies pack for the past 11 weeks and done a pretty good job, so playing behind this Blues pack, I think he will show that he is a genuine super star.
Bet 0.5 Units on Adam Reynolds for Man of Match in Game 1 of Origin at $21.00 (at time of publishing).
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