Assessing different metro and provincial formlines is a big challenge when you are trying to find the value runners and the likely winner of a race. But add to the mix a horse whose last start was in another state and it can be even harder to line up that form.
As an example, last Saturday Rebel Dane started a hot favourite for the Bobbie Lewis following a dominant first-up performance in Sydney. Tomorrow we have the boom Melbourne 3yo Prince Harada as favourite for the Golden Rose in Sydney so I thought it was worth exploring some ‘state of origin’ stats. This analysis is focused on horses whose last start was in a different state than today, so there may be some horses returning home from an interstate trip but they are still included as they do bring interstate form.
The results below are from 2010 to date and the profit percentages are the amount by which these runners differ to the best tote benchmark for all runners of 8% loss on turnover.
So if a group loses 6% on turnover then that is listed as +2% below, since that is the amount by which they outperform the average. If a group loses 15% on turnover that is listed as -7% since that is the amount by which they underperform the average.
NSW to Vic means horses whose last start was in NSW but today is racing in Victoria.
NSW to Vic +2% for 4500 bets +11% for 1200 metro bets
Vic to NSW -9% for 4600 bets -18% for 1250 metro bets
As a proud Victorian those are some very sad numbers!
Particularly at the metro meetings, where horses starting in Melbourne off of one or more Sydney runs make a profit without any form study whatsoever.
The opposite is true in Sydney. Victorian invaders look to be ‘lay all day’ types.
Now let’s see how NSW horses perform in Queensland and vice versa.
NSW to Qld -1% for 6100 bets +7% for 1950 metro bets
Qld to NSW 0% for 5700 bets +5% for 650 metro bets
NSW horses heading to Brisbane performed better than the market expected, but the same was also true for QLD horses racing in Sydney.
Vic to QLD -8% for 1100 bets -13% for 350 metro bets
QLD to Vic -15% for 500 bets -10% for 300 bets
These are relatively small sample sizes, yet quite large discrepancies in the market which suggest the transition from Queensland to Victoria (and vice versa) is far more difficult than punters expect. ————–
SA to VIC -1% for 4700 bets -3% for 1450 bets
Vic to SA +4% for 5550 bets 0% for 2700 bets
There is little doubt that in general the Victorian form is stronger than South Australia, but the market does a pretty good job of factoring that in so horses travelling between these states tend to perform quite close to market expectations.
Good punting David Duffield