Glen Boss and Peter Moody were rightfully congratulated for winning the Melbourne metropolitan jockey and trainer premierships in the recently completed season 2012/13. Brad Rawiller and Darren Weir took the overall Victorian titles and also deserve to be celebrated.

But we are punters, so total wins and even winning strike-rates are just one piece of the puzzle.

A more pertinent question is who were the punters pals, and who were the bookies besties?

Our assessment is based on the results punters achieved when backing these riders and stables and we will do so by looking at Profit on Turnover with a proportionate staking (aka target betting) approach. The reason we have done this is because it’s unfair to gauge performance using a flat betting approach where the same stake is outlayed on a 100/1 shot as one at even money.

So we’ll look at Profit on Turnover as a reasonable guide to their relative success from our perspective which is punting. Before I do though, I must mention a common but nevertheless essential disclaimer. It is not possible to simply bet blind and make money. The results below are intended as a discussion point and as a prompt for deeper analysis.

So let’s take a look at the top 10 in the traditional Victorian Metro Jockey’s Premiership. The final two columns are Profit on Turnover for this season and then last season.

The overall benchmark for all runners is between -8% and -9% POT.

Jockey Wins Rides S/R POT % 2013 POT % 2012
1 Glen Boss 65 443 14.7 0 -25.1
2 Dwayne Dunn 47 425 11.1 -5.3 8.4
3 Luke Nolen 46 384 12.0 -26.7 -4.7
4 Craig Williams 43 273 15.8 2.9 4.6
5 Chad Schofield 41 355 11.5 -1.3 N/A
6 Michael Rodd 40 232 17.2 25.8 2.5
7 Craig Newitt 39 461 8.5 -21.5 -1.6
8 Vlad Duric 38 326 11.7 3.9 N/A
9 Brad Rawiller 35 247 14.2 4.8 4.3
10 Damien Thornton 25 258 9.7 -11 N/A

There were some very interesting points to note from this analysis:

Positives:
Glen Boss – fantastic year following on from a very poor one
Craig Williams – champion
Michael Rodd and Brad Rawiller– excellent performance once again
Vlad Duric – returned in fine form

Negatives:
Luke Nolen – really struggled this season
Craig Newitt – 2nd worst profitability amongst the Top 10

Now we will include all rides (Metro, Provincial and Country):

Jockey Wins Rides S/R POT % 2013 POT % 2012
1 Brad Rawiller 166 968 17.1 -6.2 2.2
2 Dean Yendall 150 959 15.6 -1.9 -9.3
3 Glen Boss 106 638 16.6 -3 -13.1
4 Vlad Duric 98 656 14.9 -0.7 52
5 Damian Lane 98 620 15.8 30.4 -10.2
6 Craig Newitt 94 849 11.1 -16.6 -7.4
7 Daniel Stackhouse 90 687 13.1 7.1 -17.6
8 Luke Nolen 84 570 14.7 -24.9 -5.3
9 Craig Robertson 79 878 9.0 -16.3 2.4
10 Ryan Maloney 79 514 15.4 6.5 -17.3

Positives:
Brad Rawiller – slightly above the benchmark overall but that is due entirely to his metro performance
Dean Yendall, Glenn Boss and Vlad Duric – above average performances but still in the red
Damian Lane, Daniel Stackhouse and Ryan Maloney – very strong (and vastly improved) efforts

Negatives:
Craig Newitt and Luke Nolen – seriously over-rated by the market
Craig Robertson – followed a positive season with one that was well below expectations

Let’s switch to the Victorian Metro Trainer’s Premiership:

Trainer Wins Rides S/R POT % 2013 POT % 2012
1 Peter Moody 69 476 14.5 -9.4 -10.3
2 David Hayes 51 479 10.6 -0.3 -43.7
3 Peter Snowden 39 264 14.8 -9.5 -18.3
4 Mick Price 39 302 12.9 -4 12.1
5 Robert Smerdon 38 297 12.8 -13.9 7.6
6 Darren Weir 37 264 14.0 21.4 -12.6
7 Michael Kent 34 213 16.0 22.6 -45.3
8 Robbie Griffiths 25 342 7.3 -42.6 -22.5
9 Anthony Freedman 25 176 14.2 5.3 10.9
10 Danny O’Brien 20 142 14.1 5.4 -5.6

Positives:
Darren Weir and Michael Kent – much improved and highly profitable
Anthony Freedman and Danny O’brien – well above the benchmark
David Hayes – massive improver to be basically break-even

Negatives:
Robert Smerdon – big drop off for followers of the Smerdon stable
Robbie Griffiths – second straight year of poor returns
Peter Moody and Peter Snowden – below the benchmark (albeit narrowly) once again

Now we will include all runners (Metro, Provincial and Country):

Trainer Wins Rides S/R POT % 2013 POT % 2012
1 Darren Weir 176 1285 13.7 -19.5 -6.9
2 Peter Moody 167 919 18.2 -11 -4.5
3 David Hayes 128 1061 12.1 -9.5 -31.5
4 Mick Price 128 726 17.6 -5.4 -5.8
5 Robbie Griffiths 107 825 13.0 -12 -9.4
6 Robert Smerdon 88 677 13.0 -13.3 0.7
7 Peter Snowden 84 447 18.8 -4.3 -7.5
8 Michael Kent 73 456 16.0 -8.4 -12.7
9 Anthony Freedman 70 427 16.4 5.4 N/A
10 Ellerton & Zahra 67 519 12.9 -3.8 -23.1

Positives:
David Hayes – improved substantially to be just short off the benchmark
Anthony Freedman – excellent all-round results

Negatives:
Darren Weir – amazing differential between his metro starters (very profitable) and provincial/country starters (huge loss on turnover)
Robert Smerdon – similar to the metro performance and a big drop off on last season