My previous article on slow and heavy tracks focused on topweights and found that:
- The highest weighted horse underperformed considerably (12% loss on turnover compared to 8% on firmer tracks)
- Weight carried had a greater effect over shorter distances compared to staying races
- Horses whose last start was on a dry track struggled to adapt to a wet surface, losing 15% on turnover
- Apprentice jockeys claiming at least 2kg’s was a positive (about 4% improvement)
- Barriers 1-6 lost 14% on turnover while barriers 7+ performed much better.
- Some race fitness was important as 1st uppers lost 16% on turnover
Today I want to broaden that analysis to look at all horses on wet tracks (not just topweights) but with a focus on metro racing in Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane.
Let’s start with jockeys who have had a minimum of 100 metro rides on wet tracks and proved profitable to follow –
B Evans, B Pengelly, C Williams, D Gauci, D Holland, J Holder, J Lloyd, J Noonan, J Parr, M Rodd, N Rawiller, P Mertens, S Galloway, S Murphy, S Scriven, T Berry, T Clark, W Hernan, Z Purton.
The list of trainers with profitable wet track records features some very big names like Moody, Waller and Waterhouse –
B Guy, B Murray, C&C Alderson, C Waller, D Smith, D Payne, G Eurell, G Begg, G Portelli, G Waterhouse, J Oshea, J Pride, K Lees, K Moses, L Corstens, M Conners, P Moody, R Laing, R Heathcote, S Dwyer, T Noonan.
The most profitable wet track sires –
Arena, Carnegie, Clang, Commands, Galileo, Invincible Spirit, Johannesburg, Langfuhr, Magic Albert, Montjeu, More Than Ready, Mossman, Not A Single Doubt, Perugino, Rubiton, Scenic, Secret Savings, Sequalo, Shamaradal.
Best barriers – quite incredibly barrier 1 was the best performing barrier in terms of profitability, yet barrier 2 was the worst. Barriers 3-6 were all below average and as a general rule it was best to be drawn in barrier 7 or wider on a wet track. This makes sense considering the inside can get chopped up on wet tracks, but the profitability of barrier 1 contradicts this somewhat.
Last start form – horses that had either won or run 2nd last start performed very well on wet tracks.
Last start going – a last start wet track run was a positive (5% loss on turnover compared to 11% LOT for horses coming off a dry track run).
Hopefully we can enjoy some drier tracks in coming weeks, but if not then at least you can use some of the findings above to be better prepared than most.